Maxwell Technologies Inc. (MXWL)

All Comments on MXWL

  • commenter
    mmagogo
    Sep 06 02:50 AM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    Super! Great Article! Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Sep 04 01:46 PM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    www.investorideas.com/...

     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Sep 04 12:09 AM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    onequick: I'm a disclosure reader and numbers guy who has lots of experience watching engineers succeed or fail, but no ability to second guess them. It sounds like you know Beacon well and have a skill set that I lack. The scale-up issue may well be one where you are in a better position to judge than I am. I just want to see Beacon do well because I think flywheels may have an important role to play.

    mayascribe: I generally can't think in terms of less than 6 months to a year so daily numbers are just fun. But if your trading style looks to the daily data, this whole sector is in for several hundred fun days before the dust even begins to settle. I personally favor the beaten down lead-acid subsector, but in the final analysis I think we'll all be comparing the relative size of our percentage gains.     Reply
  • commenter
    Mayascribe
    Sep 03 08:54 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    Ah... Did you see what CBAK did after hours tonight? So much for my "creeping up" notions. Reply
  • commenter
    onequickM4do
    or
    Sep 03 07:19 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    Thank you for the response. If $40 million was the qualifier for a transition company than I agree with the placement. I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on the engineering hurdles. I'm not going to be blind to them not having any, but they've done the proper testing to make the next leap in my opinion. After all that's what we're debating is opinions.

    Continue the good coverage of this sector as a whole. I agree, lot's of opportunities for good companies.     Reply
  • commenter
    onequickM4do
    or
    Sep 03 07:14 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    Thank you for the response. If $40 million was the qualifier for a transition company, than I agree with the placement. Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Sep 03 04:04 PM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    To paultant: The short answer is they will all benefit. Frequency regulation in busy systems can require multiple a half-dozen or more cycles per day and for those applications the only thing that makes sense is either Li-ion or a flywheel system like Beacon is developing. Things like peak shaving and upgrade deferral on systems that only have problems a couple times per day are better suited to advanced lead-acid. Batteries will also work for small last-mile diurnal storage (storing at night for use the following day). Large scale diurnal takes something like pumped hydro or compressed air. The real key is that the market is a $100 billion short term opportunity which leaves plenty of room for a large number of tremendously successful companies.

    To onequick: I like what Beacon is doing and have a high degree of confidence that they will get to a manufactured product. But they make it clear that a 25 kWh unit that will work in a 200 flywheel array is their commercial goal and as near as I can tell, they haven't made one of those yet. I would love to find out that Beacon is further down the path than they seem to be. But I've never seen a physical device that could be scaled up 400% without dealing with new physical constraints like materials stress, vacuum maintenance, bearing performance and a host of other engineering issues. Beacon could be the exception to the rule but I'm not in a position to make that judgment.

    I used $40 million in annualized revenue as the cut-off point for the established manufacturers group. As near as I can tell, Axion and Ener1 are the only transition entities that have a solid shot at those kinds of revenue numbers within 12 months. If Beacon has a reasonable shot at booking $10 million in quarterly revenues by the end of 2009, then they probably belong in the transition group.     Reply
  • commenter
    onequickM4do
    or
    Sep 03 02:24 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    John,

    Your comments around Beacon Power have been fair up till this article.

    Can you elaborate on why you lump BCON into the Advanced Research bucket? I'd put it in the "Transition Manufacturers" seeing as BCON will begin earning revenue this year. Are you basing this characterization off of the word "substantial"... when quantifying revenues? If so, what are "substantial revenues" in your opinion?

    What are the "engineering issues" you see in BCON that would prevent them from ramping up production? Did you attend the Annual meeting in August? From first hand accounts the actual assembly of the flywheels themselves are very uncomplicated and the electronic controls aren't revolutionary by any standards. The biggest hurdle thus far from my two years of deep research on this company has been the actual plant site permitting and realigning the tariff structure in various markets.

    My last question is in regards to your statement "Beacon’s SEC reports indicate that its frequency regulation facility cannot be built until it develops and tests a pre-production prototype (25-kWh/100-kW) of its flywheel system and fabricates 200 units for incorporation into the project.". Myself and many others have poured hours upon days of time researching this company and this statement in my opinion, since your presenting yours, is not factual. If what your referring to is the Dept. of Energy loan guarantee program, they don't have to build production units ahead of that approval which is for 80% of the plant construction costs. An important point to bring up on the DOE loan, BCON was the only "energy storage" applicant that was asked to submit a full application.     Reply
  • commenter
    paultaut
    Sep 03 12:50 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    ? to All:

    TBoone's CNG beomes National Energy Policy, Which Battery Maker(s) benefit, if any?     Reply
  • commenter
    John
    Petersen
    Sep 03 01:22 AM
    My Website
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    The Ener1 transcript is available right here on Seeking Alpha. The price discussion you recall is at the bottom of page 7 and says:

    "Obviously, the direct answer to that is, no, we have not publicly disclose unit pricing mainly because we think we are aggressive on our pricing relative to our competition and we don't want to give them a target. We definitely have given some guidance, and that is that the Think City vehicle, and we understand from Think that they are planning to sell the vehicle at about a $35,000 price point, and the battery is about half to cost of the vehicle. So, at least that gives you some guidance on an average selling price that you can sort of back into a number."

    If you do a Google search for Think & Battery & Lease you'll find a ton of articles that say some variant of the following:

    "The catch is that the TH!NK is expected to cost a lot when launched in the UK next spring (it’s already on sale in Norway): £14,000, plus £140 a month battery lease charge. This means that when the battery loses efficiency, it can be traded in for free (to the manufacturers ) for a working one."

    You can't talk about the battery industry without mentioning JCI. It's a fine company and a big producer for the SLI market. It's also so diversified that I can't put it in the pure-play storage category.

    I don't dislike Ener1. But I learned a long time ago that stocks can be undervalued, fairly valued or overvalued. As you pointed out, Ener1's price has increased by 363% over the last year. Experience tells me that the likelihood that it is still undervalued is remote. Axion, on the other hand, has drifted down by about 1/3 over the last year to a level that is less than the unit price a major investor paid in June ($2.10 for a unit consisting of a common share and a $2.65 warrant). A year ago there were reasons for the decline. Today those reasons have all been resolved. All of the other valuation support metrics you talk about for China BAK are also in place for Axion. So while Ener1 has already booked a good chunk of its upside potential, Axion hasn't started yet.

    I keep repeating that I'm incredibly bullish on the entire sector. I'm not necessarily a fan of A123 as a company, but they have a major IPO coming up that should generate significant interest for a sector that has been overlooked far too long. That rising tide is going to lift all boats. I believe that the lead-acid sub-sector will do better than the Li-ion sub-sector because it has been unloved for so many years.

    Over the next few years, there will be more business out there for battery companies than any of them can handle. A lot of that business will go to the Li-ion producers. But the bulk of it will go to the lead-acid producers because their products are so much cheaper.

    Ultimately the goal of investing is to buy low and sell high. For my money the better bet is the beaten down sub-sector; not the one that's been flying high for several years.     Reply
  • commenter
    Stephanie
    Goldivase
    Sep 03 12:34 AM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    The lengthy comment about Valence Technology is quite a joke. This is a company that has been touting how it makes the best batteries on Earth for nearly two decades. While it is quite successful in selling shares of stock, it has never been very successful in selling batteries. I won't go into the long, miserable history of Valence overtouting its prospects. That record is well documented for anybody who cares to do some digging. Googling "Valence securities fraud" is a good place to start. A review of their pathetic financial statements is another.

    But one comment made in the touting post above bears some rebuttal. The poster claimed that the current Valence CEO (#7 in a long line of revolving CEO's) is the real deal and will be proven to be conservative in his projections. In fact, the current CEO has already proven to be wildly overoptimistic in his projections (just like Valence CEO's #1-6 before him). He touted that the Tanfield "contract" would be worth "$70 million in the first year." As it turns out, Tanfield took delivery of $4 million worth of batteries, didn't bother actually paying for them, and hasn't ordered any more.

    Nobody should buy Valence stock with money you can't afford to lose.     Reply
  • commenter
    nakedjaybird
    Sep 02 11:01 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    One begets the other, right?? Reply
  • commenter
    nakedjaybird
    Sep 02 10:58 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    Sorry mixing up Labor and Memorial Days, if I were American I would keep them straight. We fly the flag for both right? Reply
  • commenter
    Mayascribe
    Sep 02 10:49 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    John, I went into Ener1's website and tried to listen to the August 14th "Investors Presentation." Unfortunately, (under the "Presentations&qu... tab), it would not download, even after I updated my Acrobat reader from version 8 to 9.. I also looked at the "transcript" that was not a transcript, but rather more of a bulleted summation of the presentation.

    This is most infortunate, not only for you and your research, but also for your readers, who may trust your opinions in making a decision on whether or not to invest in this sector, but also which company(s) to invest in, or just wait.

    Being a media credentialed person, maybe you can call Ener1 and ask for a copy of the August 14th transcript, or go to their website to the "Request Information" tab.

    What I will say is what I know I heard during this presentation:

    Ener1 has two batteries now developed, one weighing 600 pounds, which is a plug-in, and one that weighs 40 pounds, which is intended for HEV's. Here's what I'm positive about; the Ener1 600 lb. battery is the battery that is going into the Th!nk City vehicle. Here's what I'm nearly positive about; that the end cost to the buyer of the city vehicle will be in the mid-to-upper $30's, including the battery. Either way, this is a far cry from the $100k car you're talking about that has a $75K battery in it.

    On Ener1's website they talk about their new Indianapolis plant and how they can generate 150k batteries per year, generating in excess of 450MM in revenue (see below). This makes mathematical sense and is in line with what I heard during the Investors Presentation. But the question arises, what about the 40 pound HEV battery?

    As you may by now know, I've been following this company since last October, and nowhere have I read about any leasing program for the battery, and would like to know where you got that information. Maybe we'll both be eating crow on this one, albeit for different reasons!

    Further, in looking at Ener1's website, I read this: "1) Capacity for 450 MM revs from current capacity in Indianapolis-further capacity to be added. 2) Revenue Visibility - 70MM minimum next 2 years, plus x2 potential development in contracts in 2008 (assuming one major contract & no tuck-in-aquisition), base case - fully funded into the middle of 2010.

    Perhaps the above will help you with Ener1's valuation.

    I do not want this to be a "Nyah-nyah-nyah, I have the better stock," thing. But throughout all of your articles you seem dogging Ener1, while touting Axiom, which you freely admit your vested in. I can somewhat understand how your technical analysis does not add up. But, I think that you hold an underestimation of what $4.00 gasoline did to this country.

    I have now listened to three Internet conference calls given by Ener1. The thing that sticks to me most, just in front of Ener1's spick and span-clean balance sheet, is what CEO Charles Gassenheimer has repeatedly said: "The problem will not be for the demand for Lithium Ion batteries, but rather the supply."

    This means that there's plenty of room for all companies, provided they have a cost competitive product, to make huge revenues in the next few years.

    The companies this investor likes: Obviously, Ener1, and CBAK, and A123 (looking forward to thast IPO). I firmly agree with the Lith-ion companies that you don't like, and am somewhat curious about the others. I also own a bunch of JCI, but not necessarily for the battery aspects.

    Just to let your readers now a little something about CBAK, the world's largest lithium battery maker in China: CBAK, on Friday, August 20th, had a 16MM in registered direct offering (earmarked for building a new computer battery plant); 4.1 million shares @ $3.90/share (read about this on Yahoo! finance). The question one has to ask themselves is this: Would any insiders/preferred shareholders who just bought shares for $3.90 a share sell their shares for less? So there's kind of a built in wall preventing the stock from going below $3.90. I scooped up another 1000 shares today, for $3.968 and I really don't care if it closed @ $3.93. My prediction is that this will all wash out in less than a month and the stock will begin creeping upward.

    How can I predict this? Well, the type same thing happened with Ener1, on April 14th. This diluted the shares value, and created a fabulous antry point. The stock has never gone below that $4.95 (warrant share price offering) that April day. I'm very happy with my average share price of $5.61.

    Hope this all helps you, and your readers. I'll be watching for your future articles, because, not only am I impressed with your developing knowledge, I'm also impressed with most of the comments. I feel the more I learn about the coming boom in the energy storage sector, the more I can position my portfolio to take advantage of all the eggs and ham!

    Keep up ther good work, and, in a kind of kiddingly way, keep dogging Ener1. Drive that stock price down, so I can by more on the cheap!

    I have to get back to writing my novel about...guess!

    Mayascribe

    Page Two: "The Company cu     Reply
  • commenter
    billymadisun
    Sep 02 10:44 PM
    Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks [view article]
    do you know anything about Mphase Technologies, and their SmartNanoBattery? Reply
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